OXBRIER

FOR THOSE WHO NOTICE
A24 for Thrillers

The commercial thriller was once one of Hollywood’s core products: grounded, adult stories with a strong point of view and enough authenticity to pull audiences into a hidden world. When made with credibility and disciplined economics, these stories still attract audiences.1

OXBRIER makes grounded thrillers for the thinking adult: military science, espionage, and statecraft.

We're industry and military veterans – authenticity is our brand – because it's the most powerful predictor of success in the genre. A24 reached $3.5B by making taste the product;2 we're doing the same with deeper commercial demand and no credible competitor.

We have traction: our $22M action-thriller produced by Mandalay/Sony will be in theaters this November, and we have twelve fully developed projects on the slate, all sourced from real-life operators, spies, and investigators in the field. Our endgame is category dominance: a direct relationship with the audience and total control over the territory we define.

We Own the Supply

The institutions that defined the last era weren't built for this one. Studios used to respect people who had been downrange, but their economics3 and collapsing cultural relevance mean they've resorted to carpet bombing.4 Original stories sit outside the system – and the audience is desperate1 for original stories, told by their generation's heroes.

OXBRIER will create a new library of bankable, franchise-starting thrillers on the basis that authentic material has produced the largest, most durable franchises in entertainment.

Fleming/Bond. Ludlum/Bourne. Crichton/Jurassic Park.5 Tom Clancy alone represents an estimated $20B across publishing, film, television, and gaming6 and has influenced presidents and policymakers.7

"Clancy didn't invent impossible schemes. He invented things that could happen. Some things that actually have happened over the years bear some resemblance to scenarios that he put together. Tom could sense things and see things in a way that others couldn't." – Colin Powell8

Authenticity enables prestige inside of a commercial genre, which attracts top talent. Michael Mann created Heat based on a detective's pursuit of the real Neil McCauley;9 Pacino and De Niro – the biggest cast pairing in history – came on for half their standard rate.

British SAS trained the cast for months;10 Val Kilmer's perfect mag change is still studied at police and military academies thirty years on.10

A strong package commands the capital stack; discounted rates from top talent, pre-sales, tax credits, and gap financing cover most of each film's budget before our equity deploys. With budget ceilings in the $3M - $30M range, Oxbrier's exposure is capped; we take a portfolio approach and treat IP as a bankable asset.11

Across formats and decades, films rooted in authentic material consistently outperform, bring together talented collaborators, and enjoy critical acclaim.

Film Source Budget Gross Multiple RT Awards Talent discount
Heat (1995) Detective memoir $60M $187M ~3x 84% Pacino ~50% below quote12
Michael Clayton (2007) Legal insider $21.5M $93M ~4x 91% 7n/1w Clooney ~90%+ below quote
Margin Call (2011) Wall Street insider $3.5M $19.5M ~5.6x 87% 1n Ensemble at SAG scale13
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (2011) MI6 novel $21M $81M ~4x 83% 3n Ensemble below quote
Argo (2012) CIA operation $44.5M $232M ~5x 96% 7n/3w (BP)
American Sniper (2014) Navy SEAL memoir $58M $548M ~9x 72% 6n/1w Cooper waived upfront14
Sicario (2015) Border DEA $30M $85M ~3x 93% 3n Blunt below quote
Oppenheimer (2023) Biography $100M $976M ~10x 93% 13n/7w (BP) Ensemble ~60–80% below quote15
We Cultivate Demand

The regime must spend as much marketing a tentpole as they do making it16 – and then that investment evaporates after opening weekend.17 Even when streaming turns a profit, it does so by extracting rent on a contracting renter base. Over $25B in cumulative streaming losses since 2019 prove that distribution can't build brand loyalty.18

Oxbrier cultivates demand while retaining the audience. Anchored on a newsletter and distributed across social feeds and podcasts, we offer insider access to unseen worlds. While headlines speculate about a covert op gone pear-shaped, we're publishing ground truth. Our founders have built and scaled editorial operations for two decades;19 by cultivating demand we harvest development insights, wield leverage at every counterparty, and create a route to D2C.20

Tyler Brûlé covered wars for the Sunday Times Magazine and Vanity Fair before founding Wallpaper* and Monocle, a magazine that created the category it served: global affairs, travel, and design under a single editorial identity. That audience became the distribution for Monocle retail shops, cafes, conferences, a 24-hour radio station, and brand partnerships – direct-to-consumer across every channel. Retail now accounts for a quarter of the company's revenue,21 and its online newsletter has triple the average open-rate.22 Brûlé has said explicitly that Monocle is not a magazine – it's a brand that communicates through publishing.

The pattern repeats across industries: companies that build a direct audience relationship trade at a premium over those that rent one.

Entity Audience Owned Outcome What the Audience Unlocked
A24 Brand loyalty program; 70% viewer return rate23 $3.5B valuation2 Theatrical releases sell on brand alone; no single title required
The Free Press 1.5M subscribers, 170K paid Acquired by Paramount Skydance for $150M in five years24 Studio paid for the audience, not the content
Pirate Wires 100K+ subscribers; funded by Founders Fund as VP Solana's editorial arm2526 Shapes Silicon Valley narrative; The Atlantic profiled Solana as the most influential voice in tech media (2024) VC firm built an editorial operation as a strategic asset, not a cost center
NEON Curatorial identity across social + festival circuit Longlegs: $128M on sub-$10M budget, zero TV ads27 Brand replaced the entire P&A budget
Daily Wire 1M+ subscribers via political editorial Bypasses theaters and streamers entirely Editorial built the audience; audience became the distribution
Crunchyroll 15M+ paid subscribers in a single genre (anime) Acquired by Sony for $1.175B (2021) Subscriber base valued as a distribution asset
Red Bull Media House Brand-owned audience across film, print, digital, events Operates as a profit center; 2,000+ employees Editorial finances the brand, not the reverse
Key Takeaways
Incumbents Oxbrier
Risk-averse development Warfighter-led development
Loaded production costs Genre-focused production
Rented distribution Distribution optionality
Opex marketing (CAC > LTV) Capex marketing (LTV > CAC)
Debt-funded extraction at distress multiples Compounding at platform multiples

Market conviction. Incumbents abandoned mid-budget film while audience demand for our material is growing.

Asymmetric economics. $3-30M budgets with package discounts, pre-sales, tax credits, and gap covering most of each film before equity deploys. Derisked downside, uncapped upside.

Team-market fit. The founders' specific knowledge – military service, studio production, global brand strategy – can't be hired or bought.

Traction. Finished product with major studio distribution.

Return Thesis. A compounding platform. Proprietary supply + owned audience + appreciating library + brand equity = A24 trajectory ($3.5B) in a genre with $20B franchise precedents and zero credible competitors.

Confidential materials including the slate, financial model, and diligence package are available.

Chris Papasadero
chris@oxbrier.com

Founders

Jev Valles – West Point graduate, GWOT vet, and career entertainment executive – knows how Hollywood makes decisions.

Colin Nagy – runs Global Brand Strategy at Instagram and Threads, writes for FT and Monocle. Knows how culture and commerce intersect at scale, and how to find the stories that others miss.

Chris Papasadero – Green Beret, studio-produced screenwriter, three exits; built a career straddling the battlefield and the boardroom.


Sources
  1. 68,000-respondent study across 15 markets: 46% want more thrillers in theaters (Global Cinema Foundation, 2025, variety.com); NRG survey confirms audiences prioritize original films (The Wrap, August 2025, thewrap.com); 2,503-respondent poll: lack of appealing content is the top barrier (Tubi / Harris Poll, "The Stream 2024," thewrap.com); MPA / Comscore THEME Report, 2024 (motionpictures.org).
  2. A24 reached a $3.5B valuation in 2024 via Josh Kushner's Thrive Capital-led financing round, up 40% from the prior round. Variety, June 2024. variety.com
  3. S&P downgraded WBD to junk status (Deadline, May 2025, deadline.com); Paramount Skydance $10B credit facility (SEC 8-K filing, 2026, stocktitan.net); Comcast Q4 2024 earnings release (cmcsa.com).
  4. CNN, February 2022; Stephen Follows, 2017. cnn.com
  5. Bond franchise: $7.8B over 25 films, drove Amazon's $8.45B MGM acquisition (Yahoo Finance, 2024, uk.finance.yahoo.com; Variety, March 2022, variety.com). Grisham: 300M copies, 37 consecutive #1 bestsellers (Accio, 2024, accio.com). Bourne: $1.64B film franchise, NBCU acquired all rights after seven competitive bids (NBCUniversal, 2025, nbcuniversal.com). Jurassic Park: ~$6B across six films (Box Office Mojo, boxofficemojo.com).
  6. All-in across publishing, film, television, and gaming. Books: 100M+ copies in print (The Fiscal Times, October 2013, thefiscaltimes.com). Film: $788M theatrical box office (Box Office Mojo, boxofficemojo.com). Gaming revenue: Ubisoft's Clancy-branded gaming franchises sold 114M+ units with $7–8B+ estimated lifetime revenue, led by Rainbow Six Siege at $3.5B alone (Game World Observer, October 2024, gameworldobserver.com). Gaming IP enterprise value: Tencent's November 2025 €1.16B investment in Ubisoft's Vantage Studios — built around Assassin's Creed, Far Cry, and Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six — valued the subsidiary at €3.8B pre-money, with Rainbow Six as one of three co-equal franchises (Ubisoft press release, November 21, 2025, staticctf.ubisoft.com). Aggregating gaming revenue, gaming IP value, the broader Clancy gaming catalog (Splinter Cell, Ghost Recon, The Division), TV adaptations (Jack Ryan, Without Remorse), and licensing puts the all-in value at approximately $20B.
  7. Reagan called The Hunt for Red October "the perfect yarn" and Cold War policymakers cited Clancy as predictive of actual operations. U.S. News, October 2013. usnews.com
  8. Colin Powell on Tom Clancy. Time, October 2013. time.com
  9. Wikipedia, Heat (1995 film). De Niro's character named after the actual thief Neil McCauley. en.wikipedia.org
  10. Yardbarker. Former British SAS trained the Heat cast for three months with live rounds; bank shootout still studied at police academies. yardbarker.com
  11. IPR.VC Fund III anchored by €25M EIF commitment (European Investment Fund, February 2025, eif.org); Shamrock Capital $400M content IP fund (Deadline, July 2020, deadline.com); Apollo, HarbourView, and Content Partners building institutional film/TV IP positions (Romano Law, March 2026, romanolaw.com).
  12. Celebrity Net Worth. Pacino's standard quote in 1995 was $10M+; he took $5–8M for Heat to work with Mann and De Niro. celebritynetworth.com
  13. Entire cast – Spacey, Irons, Tucci, Bettany, Moore, Quinto – agreed to work at SAG minimum for the $3.5M production shot in 17 days. Slate, "The Making of Margin Call," January 2011; Collider interview with J.C. Chandor, Sundance 2011 (collider.com).
  14. Cooper waived his upfront fee entirely and took backend points; earned ~$50M on $547M worldwide gross vs. a standard quote of $15–20M. Celebrity Net Worth (celebritynetworth.com); Hollywood Reporter on Cooper salary negotiations (hollywoodreporter.com).
  15. Variety via ScreenRant. Oppenheimer cast salaries: Murphy $10M, Downey Jr. / Damon / Blunt $4M each vs. standard $10–20M quotes. screenrant.com
  16. Robert Marich, Marketing to Moviegoers (3rd ed., Southern Illinois University Press, 2013): annual single-picture P&L analysis shows Hollywood spends as much marketing a film as making it (amazon.com). Pamela McClintock, "$200 Million and Rising: Hollywood Struggles With Soaring Marketing Costs," The Hollywood Reporter (hollywoodreporter.com).
  17. Theatrical revenue operates on a sliding scale that shifts toward exhibitors over time. Studios typically receive 55–65% of opening-weekend gross (sometimes higher for blockbusters), declining each subsequent week – a representative scale runs 55% in weeks 1–2, 50% in week 3, 45% in week 4, down to ~30% in final weeks – with the full-run split averaging roughly 50/50 between studio and exhibitor. Stephen Follows, "How is a cinema's box office income distributed?" (stephenfollows.com); Roger Ebert, "How your ticket price is divided" (rogerebert.com). The three largest US exhibitors (AMC, Regal, Cinemark) collectively capture ~54% of domestic box office (AMC 2023 10-K, investor.amctheatres.com).
  18. Disney lost over $11B on streaming from Disney+'s 2019 launch through 2024 before posting its first full-year profit of $574M (Local Broadcast Sales, localbroadcastsales.com; Fortune, November 2024, fortune.com). Peacock lost $2.7B in 2023 and $1.8B in 2024, with cumulative losses estimated at ~$7B (Comcast quarterly earnings filings). Paramount+ lost $1.66B in 2023; Warner Bros. Discovery's DTC division lost $2.1B in 2022 before reaching marginal profitability in 2023 (Hollywood Reporter streaming profit reports, hollywoodreporter.com). Combined studio streaming losses from 2019–2024 exceed $25B.
  19. Colin Nagy contributor pages: Monocle, Muck Rack (FT, Skift); Why Is This Interesting? daily newsletter (tens of thousands of subscribers): Substack; Instagram/Threads global brand strategy: ZoomInfo, BRXND.
  20. "Owned distribution" describes channels a brand owns and controls directly – its own websites, newsletters, apps, and social presence – versus paid (advertising) and earned (PR, word of mouth) media. The brand owns the customer relationship and isn't dependent on third-party gatekeepers. Smart Insights, "The difference between paid, owned and earned media." smartinsights.com
  21. Retail sales of branded goods account for approximately 25% of revenue for Monocle's UK entity (Winkontent Limited), up from 15–20% in prior years. A Media Operator analysis of Winkontent UK filings, 2024. amediaoperator.com
  22. Monocle's newsletter reaches 92,000 subscribers at a 47% open rate (Monocle media kit, 2024). Industry average open rate for media and publishing is approximately 15–17% (Mailchimp, 2024). A Media Operator, 2024. amediaoperator.com
  23. HBO Max / A24 Pay-1 deal renewal: half of A24's 2025 Pay-1 titles ranked top 10 on HBO Max within two weeks; 70% of viewers who watched one A24 film returned for more, averaging four titles. Variety, January 2026. variety.com
  24. Paramount Skydance acquired The Free Press for $150M in October 2025 (1.5M subscribers, 170K paid). The transaction valued the direct subscriber engagement Paramount couldn't build internally. Deadline, October 2025. deadline.com
  25. Pirate Wires is a Founders Fund-backed media company founded by Mike Solana (VP of Founders Fund); over 100,000 subscribers, framed as an insider antidote to legacy publishing. Business Insider, July 2024. businessinsider.com
  26. Christopher Beam, "The Most Opinionated Man in America," The Atlantic, October 2024. theatlantic.com
  27. Deadline, July 2024. NEON's Longlegs: $128M worldwide on sub-$10M release budget. deadline.com